»Success has secrets while failure has reasons.«
— Joachim Kaiser
Dynamic Models Reveal the Secrets of Your Success
System Dynamics (SD) is a trusted method to qualitatively and quantitatively model business. Alluding to cybernetics we have coined the comprehensive and systematic use of business simulations to support management decision making
SIBER®: Simulation-informed Business for Effective Resource Management
Strategic management will especially benefit from these advantages:
- Delayed processes of accumulation and degeneration of resources will be realistically charted.
- Interdependencies between resources and processes can be accounted for.
- Nonlinear effects – non exception but the rule – can be modeled without much difficulty.
- Sensitivity analysis informs about critical factors.
- Bayesian statistics allow to include important prior knowledge and will fully account for uncertainty in risk analysis.
- Actual data, as they become available, will be used to update prior knowledge and will inform on parameters and intangibles not open to direct measurement.
Financial value driver trees and models that are not closely linked to operational entities and processes quickly degenerate to mere number games. Accounting for interdependencies is painfully slow and needs a lot of coordination.